Is the breakup of Google imminent?

In a landmark ruling that could redefine how we interact with the internet, Judge Amit P. Mehta last week declared Google guilty of illegally monopolizing online search and advertising. By paying companies like Apple and Samsung to make its search engine the default on devices, Google secured more than 90% of the search market. The court will now decide whether to break up the tech giant – a potential game-changer for how we use the internet.

The decision is a major win for the Justice Department (DOJ), which brought the case forward. It might also signal that the judicial winds are shifting in favor of the government and against Big Tech. Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Google have all faced antitrust suits, the result of an agreement brokered under President Donald Trump. Big Tech could face exposure to further litigation now.

Yet, while the court’s decision is necessary, it may be too late to make a significant impact. Six years of legal wrangling have allowed Google to entrench its dominance even further. Even with this ruling, Google’s market share might only see a minor dent. Microsoft tried to challenge Google by adding AI to Bing, but it barely made a difference. Google might simply be too big to fail.

The power of Google’s monopoly isn’t just in its technological superiority but in its strategic business deals. Between its exclusionary contracts, owned properties like the Android operating system, and operated properties like the devices that have Google set as the default search engine, the DOJ alleges Google has “foreclosed competition for internet search.” This ecosystem has allowed Google to maintain its dominance, not just through innovation but by making sure competitors never had a real chance to challenge its supremacy.

Judge Mehta’s decision acknowledges that Google is outcompeting its rivals, not just through default settings but by creating a superior product. As noted in the ruling, Apple and Microsoft occasionally discussed making Bing the default search engine in Apple products, but those talks went nowhere because Google’s system was simply better overall. Even when Microsoft offered Apple 100% of Bing’s revenue, it was still only half of what Google could offer at a 36% revenue share. The power of Google’s default settings, while significant, is only part of the story.

Looking ahead, it’s difficult to imagine an internet that isn’t dominated by Google. But the ruling opens a door, albeit a narrow one. One potential outcome could see Google being forced to share its data with rival search engines, enabling them to build more competitive alternatives. Yet, history tells us that this might not change much for users – just look at what happened after Google lost its antitrust case in the European Union. Despite mandatory “choice screens” that prompted users to select a search engine, Google’s market share remained largely unaffected.

Moreover, the rise of AI could render this entire legal battle moot. As AI-driven tools like ChatGPT become more popular, traditional search engines might become less relevant. This ruling could even accelerate the shift toward AI, as users seek alternatives to Google. However, Judge Mehta remains unconvinced that AI is yet a full replacement for traditional search.

As Google faces a trial to determine remedies, a lot of options have been floated, including choice screens, limitations on deals, data sharing, or even forced divestiture of Chrome or Android. However, none of these proposed remedies seem well-targeted, especially since the court’s opinion waffles on the exact harm that Google perpetrated.

The DOJ’s win also raises the risk for other pending cases. Legal academics have tended to rank Google’s cases as being on the strongest legal grounds, suggesting that Big Tech’s legal troubles are far from over.

In the end, the ruling against Google may symbolize a turning point in the tech industry. However, whether it will lead to meaningful change or simply be a footnote in Google’s continued dominance remains to be seen. The internet, for now, is still very much Google’s world.